Hitherto, international public health agencies like the World Health Organization have played a major role in determining, perhaps dictating, what courses of action individual countries should take in order to contain the scourge. However, close to one and a half years on, there’s no substantive proof that the adoption of some of these measures has been worthwhile.
For example, in a low-income country like Uganda where many live from hand to mouth, the enforcement of control actions like the lockdown has been more devastating than the virus, itself on people’s livelihoods. The benefit-cost ratio has particularly been lopsided against the prevailing restrictions.
More worrying than that, though, is the fact that our decision-makers seem to be inclined towards imposing lockdowns impulsively and not defining any realistic goals. Also, the failure to establish a viable metric that guides our progress in the direction of achieving those goals appears to be the reason we’re moving in endless circles around this mountain!
When President Museveni announced the initial raft of restrictions and subsequent countywide lockdown in March 2020, the purpose was to suppress the spread of the virus. At the time of his announcement, the number of Ugandans to have contracted the infection stood at 44, with no recorded deaths.
In late May 2020 when the lockdown was eased, the number of infections had risen from 44 to about 253. With the President’s objective in hindsight, these figures effectively rendered the first lockdown to have been ineffective.
On 6th June 2021, the Head of State declared a 42-day lockdown. At the time, 52,935 Ugandans had contracted the virus and 383 were reported to have died from it. As of 6th July 2021, the cumulative infections totaled 84,116, with 1,099 deaths. In just a month, the coronavirus morbidity has increased by 59% and deaths by 187%.
Evidently, in as far as curbing the escalation in infections, the similarity between the first and second lockdown is that none has yielded results. If anything, the current trend suggests that the numbers are taking an upward trajectory. Comparatively, though, the mortality rate has been extremely low, at 1.3%; and was previously at less than 1% for a period of close to 13 months.
The summation of all this then begs the fundamental question—what exactly is the justification for the continued lockdown?
If the purpose of the presumptuously overbearing restrictions and incident-ridden vaccination campaign is to take the country back to March 2020 when morbidity and mortality were at zero; is it really achievable for a highly communicable disease like Covid-19?
And when did it suddenly become our aspiration to achieve 0% mortality from any aspect of life? Isn’t this a futile attempt to defy the natural progression of life?
Defining some attainable targets like maintaining the mortality rate at a low threshold of, say, less than 1%, would help in determining feasible responses.
For example, in recent weeks; in addition to exorbitant hospital fees, there have been numerous reports of limited or no oxygen in health facilities, which has contributed to increased covid-related deaths.
Reversing this nature of logistical challenges is achievable and would ensure a slump in mortality. But even better, it doesn’t require people staying locked up at home.
As it stands, the lockdown is an inappropriate, pointless and unsustainable measure, and it’s costing the population dearly. If drastic changes aren’t made and Ugandans aren’t allowed to return to their normal lives, we’ll undoubtedly be beating the air for many more years to come, while ploughing further into this rabbit hole!
This article has also featured in The Observer: https://observer.ug/viewpoint/70467-covid-19-lockdowns-are-we-beating-the-air
